In the first poll for the European elections by CESOP - Universidade Católica Portuguesa for RTP, Antena 1 and Público, carried out between May 13-18, the ruling AD comes out slightly ahead of the PS in direct voting intention (22 to 20%), which translates into a technical tie (31 to 30%) between the two largest formations contesting the European elections.
This is almost a replica of the difference in votes that occurred in the legislative elections on 10 March.
Chega is the third party with the most voting intentions, 11%, which translates into an electoral estimate of 15% and 3 to 4 MPs. It is followed by IL (6%), BE, L and CDU (all three with 5%).
According to the study, the Liberals are guaranteed 1 to 2 MPs and BE, L and CDU are expected to elect 1 each. The survey report emphasises that if "the elections were held at the time of this survey, the PAN would not have elected any MPs", thus losing its deputy elected in 2019.
The Católica poll also found out that "AD, PS, CH or L seem to be holding on to their electorate (from the March legislative elections) who intend to vote in the European elections. Other parties, such as the BE, IL, also L, and especially the PAN still have a lot of undecided voters from the last legislative elections."
The survey also examined respondents' voting intentions, with roughly 80% saying that they will vote in these elections (63% "will definitely vote" and 16% "will probably vote"). This is a higher voter turnout than in the 2019 elections, with abstention close to 70%.
António Costa's ambitions
Interestingly, the poll suggests that there is broad support for António Costa's candidacy for president of the European Council, even among Chega voters.
When questioned if they would support his nomination "without clarification of the investigation," the majority of respondents (51%) believe that the former prime minister" is qualified to be president of the European Council, compared to 45% who say he is "not qualified".
Among PS voters, this conviction is even greater (82% yes, 16% no). There is less support among AD voters, but still there is considerable support (42% yes, 53% no). Among the Chega voters, without this clarification of the investigation into António Costa, only 21% say yes, that he has the conditions to be president of the European Council, against 77% who answer in the negative.
However, when asked if they would support his bid if this clarification is provided, 96% of Portuguese voters believe that António Costa is qualified for that position. With 99% of PS voters and 97% of AD voters saying yes, the surprise comes when 84% of Chega voters agree with supporting the former prime minister's candidacy.
Technical Data
This survey was carried out by CESOP - Universidade Católica Portuguesa for RTP, Antena 1 and Público between 13 and 18 May 2024. The target universe is made up of voters resident in Portugal. Respondents were randomly selected from a list of mobile phone numbers, which was also randomly generated. All interviews were conducted by telephone (CATI). Respondents were informed of the purpose of the study and showed a willingness to participate. A total of 965 valid surveys were obtained, 43% of whom were women. Geographical distribution: 32% from the North, 21% from the Centre, 33% from Lisbon, 7% from the Alentejo, 4% from the Algarve, 2% from Madeira and 1% from the Azores. All the results obtained were then weighted according to the distribution of the population by sex, age group, region and voting behaviour based on data from the electoral census and the last legislative elections. The response rate was 28%*. The maximum margin of error associated with a random sample of 965 respondents is 3.2%, with a 95% confidence level.
*3439 people were contacted. Of these, 965 agreed to take part in the survey and responded by the end of the questionnaire.
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